This forecast finds strong employment demand in New Zealand in the near term in response to domestic-focused growth supported by strong activities in the construction, business services and hospitality industries.
This report presents employment forecasts over the 3 years to March 2018. These employment forecasts will inform the Ministry’s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training over the next 2-3 years.
The Ministry uses a short-term forecasting model that draws on the latest macroeconomic forecasts by the Treasury, covering overall GDP growth as well as detailed forecasts of terms of trade, exchange rates and interest rates. The detailed macroeconomic forecasts enable the forecasts of economic activity in broad industries to be consistent with overall economic growth.
The Ministry used model-based forecasts of industry level economic activity and productivity to derive forecasts of industry employment. The industry level employment forecasts are then used to forecast employment by occupations and by skill levels.
The forecasts suggest overall strong employment demand in the near term in response to domestic-focused growth supported by strong activities in the construction, business services and hospitality industries. Employment growth is expected to peak in the 2016 March year and decline gradually over the next two years.