Long run patterns of housing prices in Melbourne
This report summarises findings from a research project looking at the long run patterns of housing prices across Melbourne suburbs. Using Valuer General unit record level residential transactions data covering the period 1976-2010, sale records in Melbourne have been ranked and put into four equal count groups (quartiles) for each year of sale. The research then examines changing spatial patterns of relatively higher cost and relatively lower cost housing across Melbourne’s suburbs. The analysis highlights changing patterns of spatial distribution and concentration. These are often masked when using aggregate data. A comparison of the distribution of lower cost house sales between 1976 and 2009 shows some dramatic differences. In 1976, many inner and middle suburbs to the north and west of Melbourne had very high concentrations of lower cost housing, with over 60% of their sales in the lowest Melbourne quartile. Although many eastern suburbs generally had lower proportions of sales in the lowest price quartile, at that time the distribution was still somewhat mixed with some suburbs having moderate proportions of sales in the lower price quartiles. In contrast, by 2009 nearly all the inner and middle suburbs of Melbourne had only negligible proportions of house sales in the lowest price quartile. An increasing homogeneity of sales is observed over the study period. By 2009 essentially all sales in the inner and middle ring were in the top price quartile. Overall, the proportion of house sales in the inner region of Melbourne in the lowest price quartile dropped from 35.7% in 1976 to 2.3% in 2009.
