The mining, defence and other major projects that are underway or in the pipeline mean that South Australia is on the cusp of a new growth path. Effectively South Australia has the opportunity to achieve a paradigm shift to a new higher rate of sustained economic and employment growth, stimulated initially by these new opportunities from mining and defence.

This report, commissioned by the Economic Development Board (EDB), suggests that annual economic growth could plausibly average 4 per cent from 2006-07 to 2015-16. The completion of the construction phase of Olympic Dam, because of its sheer size, will inevitably lead to some slow-down, but economic growth after 2015-16 could well continue at a healthy average annual rate of around 31⁄2 per cent. This plausible scenario would involve average annual employment growth over the period from 2006-07 to 2015-16 of 2 per cent, and around 11⁄2 per cent, or a tad more, thereafter.

The other critical influence on South Australia’s economic prospects is the projected ageing of the population. Unless participation can be increased, labour force growth will consequently slow, in which case the underlying growth of output and employment would also have been expected to slow.