Known unknowns – including the Nick Xenophon team’s election-day performance – make a precise prediction difficult. But the evidence points mainly one way

AS THIS extended election campaign nears its (possibly merciful) end, there is a commentariat consensus that Labor, while making some gains, will fall short of a win. The magnitude of the gains will, of course, play a critical role in the futures of both major-party leaders. Complicating the picture is the likely size of any crossbench, which could range anywhere from three members to ten, with the Xenophon factor in South Australia a key unknown.

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