Resource analysts Wood Mackenzie were commissioned by the Port of Newcastle to estimate the impact of Galilee Basin mines on the coal price and volumes produced by mines in the Hunter Valley and parts of Queensland.
Based on Wood Mackenzie’s analysis, the development of the Galilee Basin will reduce the value of NSW coal royalties by AUD$10.2 billion to 2035. Without the development of the Galilee Basin, Wood Mackenzie estimate NSW coal exports would increase from 170 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) t o 230 Mtpa in 2035.
By contrast, if the Galilee Basin produce s 150 Mtpa, Wood Mackenzie estimate throughput at Port of Newcastle will decline to under 150 Mtpa in 2035. Wood Mackenzie see the price of coal increasing from current levels to USD$89 per tonne by the late 2020s if Galilee Basin is not developed. With Galilee Basin development prices are forced to under USD$60 in the mid - 2020s before recovering to USD$63 per tonne in 2035.