Declining fertility rates are a worldwide phenomenon, with Australia no exception. Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a record low of 1.5 births per woman. This report examines both the drivers of fertility decisions and the lessons from past policy interventions. It finds the decline in fertility has been driven by three factors.

Australia, like many developed countries, is experiencing a significant decline in its total fertility rate. The First Child Tax Refund and the Baby Bonus policies aimed to reduce the financial cost of childbearing, with the Baby Bonus designed to encourage higher fertility. This note examines the effects of these financial incentives on fertility outcomes.

Government policy often supports small businesses through lower taxes, lighter labour regulation and grants. Yet this paper finds it is actually young firms that play the most outsized role in economic dynamism in Australia. Using firm-level microdata, the paper draws out this important distinction between firm size and age in firms’ economic contribution, highlighting three...

Amid an evolving range of international approaches, this report finds that the Australian Government is yet to provide a clear direction for AI regulation. It highlights the importance of regulatory certainty as an enabler of AI-driven productivity. It outlines five principal channels for productivity gains: labour-improving tools, automation, firm-level reorganisation, sectoral reallocation and knowledge creation.

Since the introduction of the National Disability Insurance Scheme, the care economy in Australia has expanded sharply. This paper documents three channels through which this large labour demand shock and structural change has affected the labour market over the past decade. It finds that gender gaps have narrowed in both employment and pay, especially benefiting...