In this report we analyse the consequences for the Hunter Valley of the decline in thermal coal demand which will occur as the world takes action to implement the Paris Agreement climate change goals and the UN Sustainable Development goals.

We provide two very different representations of the future:

1. A business as usual approach where few adjustments are taken to prepare for the change in thermal coal demand
2. An active approach where the region diversifies significantly in preparation for change

There are enormous risks and impacts if the region does not prepare for the global changes that are underway. Over 5,000 jobs and $700M in wages and salaries could be lost if predicted global declines in coal occur and the Hunter Valley is not prepared for those changes.

However, if action is taken now to prepare for the changes that are coming and to diversify the Hunter economy, then it is possible to buffer the region and increase employment and wages.

This analysis outlines a scenario which would see 595 more jobs created than are lost from coal mining and local wages and salaries increase by $35M in 2040. This scenario indicates that the Hunter can develop more labour-intensive industries than coal mining, providing jobs and income for the region, even as coal production declines.

Crucial to such a positive and fair transition coming to fruition is immediate action from governments to establish a transition process that involves all stakeholders, to invest substantial resources in key industries and to prioritise workforce re-training and skills development.