COVID-19 has had a massive impact on the social sector, not least in making planning for future demand extremely challenging. Using scenarios proved a valuable way to understand potential impacts on demand in the Victorian child and family services sector, given the many uncertainties.

SVA partnered with Berry Street, Centre for Excellence in Child and Family Welfare and Victorian Aboriginal Child Care Agency to understand the emerging and future impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable families and children so that the sector could get a clearer sense of the potential increase in demand for child protection and out-of-home care in Victoria.

This work built on an earlier report which demonstrated the economic case for additional government investment into targeted, early intervention programs to support more Victorian children to avoid out-of-home care.

The team used scenario planning to demonstrate that under all scenarios more families will be in need of support due to COVID-19. Based on these scenarios, SVA was also able to quantify the additional social and economic benefits of investment in early intervention programs.

Scenarios can be a useful tool to provide some certainty in a time of great uncertainty which could include contributing to a better understanding of demand for services or providing an evidence base for advocacy for additional funding.

The full report on the emerging impact of COVID-19 on families and the potential increase in demand for child protection and out-of-home care in Victoria has enabled Berry Street and the Centre to strengthen their advocacy with the Victorian Government.