This briefing paper examines the latest energy scenarios informing United Kingdom and European Union policy-making, and compares these with the announced United States target for a zero-carbon electricity system by 2035.

Key points:

• An ‘unspoken consensus’ is revealed between the UK, EU and US that clean electricity in the 2030s is crucial for net-zero by 2050.
• A rapid end to coal-fired electricity can be seen across all scenarios, with major reductions before 2030.
• Wind and solar become the dominant source of electricity from 2030 in the UK and EU, and the US could achieve the same.
• Electricity generation from fossil gas declines in all regions in the next decade. A complete phase-out of unabated gas is recommended by 2035 in the UK and the same is implied by the US target.
• Twenty-nine countries are committed to net-zero by 2050, including ten G20 members and over half of the OECD. However, these mid-century targets are not universally founded upon low carbon electricity in the next decade.