When the counting’s done, elections obey the iron laws of arithmetic. Yet, in the lead-up to polling day, psychology also plays its part.

At two key federal elections in living memory, the upset winner relied on more malleable things than hard numbers to leaven their poor electoral prospects – unquantifiables such as hope, self-belief, even faith.

Paul Keating’s victory for the 'true believers' in 1993, and Scott Morrison’s 'miracle' win in 2019, stand out as elections during which the leaders successfully harnessed these most human of motivations.

Read the full article on The Conversation.