The purpose of this report is to present predictions and forecasts of climate indicators and global fields for the period 2023-2027. It provides information on the expected changes in global near-surface temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), and El Niño Southern Oscillation. It also includes regional predictions for near-surface temperatures in 2023.

Key findings:

• Global temperatures are likely to increase to record levels in the five-year period 2023-2027 and stay well above the 1991-2020 reference.
• Annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year in this five-year period is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the period 1850 to 1900.
• The chance of the annual mean global near-surface temperature in 2023-2027 exceeding 1.5°C above 1850-1900 levels for at least one year is 66% and is increasing with time.
• It is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.
• The chance of at least one year exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, in the next five years is 98%.
• The multi-model ensemble-mean temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are predicted to be positive for December 2023 – February 2024, indicating the onset of El Niño.
• Near-surface temperatures in 2023 are likely to be higher than the 1991-2020 average in almost all regions except for Alaska, South Africa, South Asia, and parts of Australia.