On 5 November 2024, Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president.

The choice is between Donald Trump, running for a second, non-consecutive term at the helm of a Republican Party moulded firmly in his image, and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, whose surprise elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket has re-energised her party.

Against that background, Lowy Institute scholars have set their minds to imagining a second Trump presidency, and what that would mean for American statecraft, Australia, and the world.

The Institute has no house position on Donald Trump. The authors of these essays write in their own names. Their assessments vary depending on the region and issues they cover. Some believe Trump would be less restrained a second time round. Others remain sanguine about his bluster and unpredictability.

But all agree the world has changed since January 2021 when Trump was last in power, and the stakes are higher.

The Russian threat has returned to Europe, the conflict in Gaza threatens to escalate into a wider Middle East war, China is inching closer to realising a post-American order in Asia, and it is making hay globally by claiming leadership of the disparate but increasingly influential Global South.

Whether the United States continues to champion allies, values, and norms under a re-elected Donald Trump has never been more consequential for friends and foes alike.  

This collection contains the following essays:

• Introduction by Hervé Lemahieu
• How Australia should deal with Trump by Michael Fullilove
• A Trump win splits the East Asian triangle by Richard McGregor
• Trump would put personality over policy in the Middle East by Lydia Khalil
• Trump may surprise us on the Ukraine war by Mick Ryan 
• Southeast Asia has low expectations of America, including Trump by Susannah Patton
• Trump has clashing instincts on Asian security, but China competition will continue by Sam Roggeveen
• Trump 2.0 would not derail the global energy transition by Michelle Lyons
• Trumpian economic nationalism is not what the world or America needs by Roland Rajah
• Revisionist powers would gain from Trump’s challenge to the rules‐based order by Ryan Neelam