This analysis of the workforce implications of the electricity scenarios laid out in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) shows very rapid scale-up is required. The report empowers governments, the electricity sector and education providers to develop informed and responsive policies, plans and programs.

This report responds to each of the three energy scenarios laid out in the ISP. These are: 

1. Step Change: a rapid energy transition alongside strong economic growth 
2. Progressive Change: a constrained economic and supply chain environment, with a smaller economy requiring less energy, and 
3. Green Energy Exports: an exceptionally fast decarbonisation with a emphasis on a green exports economy and electrification. 

The projections for each scenario encompass technology, location and occupation, focusing on electricity generation and storage as well as the construction of new transmission lines.

Findings

• All three scenarios of optimal development paths in the ISP will require very rapid scale up of the energy workforce.
• All three scenarios have a peak in 2029 followed by a significant drop off, caused by the construction boom to meet the 2030 target.
• Under the Step Change scenario (considered most likely by energy stakeholders) overall electricity sector employment will have to double to 66,300 by 2029. 
• Under all scenarios, most employment growth occurs in wind farms, solar farms and distributed batteries, while rooftop solar jobs are constant. 
• Decline in traditional energy jobs is outstripped by the increase in other electricity sector jobs, offering opportunities for transition employment. 
• Construction dominates the employment profile through the 2020s as the build-out of renewable energy, transmission and storage accelerates, with the majority of jobs being in operations and maintenance from 2033 onwards.
• The rapid increase in requirements for energy workers brings a high risk of skill shortages.