Governments face increasing pressure to respond swiftly and effectively to rapidly evolving international migration flows – whether forced or planned. Anticipation is key to this response, but remains a challenge, and some important categories of migration are still not the object of forecast. This guide offers concrete measures to introduce, run and strengthen migration forecasting systems and preparedness strategies. 

The handbook follows the forecasting lifecycle from problem definition to communication and system learning. By strengthening the link between forecasting and preparedness, it seeks to help governments respond more effectively to uncertainty grounded in evidence, informed judgement and continuous learning.

Migration forecasting involves many actors. This handbook has been drafted primarily with five categories of users in mind: the civil servant, policymaker or official who has been tasked with producing forecasts; the modeller; the migration data analyst; the migration forecaster; and the civil servant, policymaker or official who receives the output of the modeller and must translate it.

The handbook is structured into questions, which can be grouped into four general categories:

1. what is migration forecasting, why is it useful and how is it currently being used? 
2. how can a forecast be conducted, in terms of models, resources, data, development and evaluation? 
3. how can forecasts be presented to policymakers so that they understand the complex results and the uncertainties and make proper use of the forecast? 
4. emerging questions in forecasting that may help policymakers and modellers alike to understand how the discipline may evolve in the coming years.