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Population forecasting

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Population forecasting
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Guide

Migration anticipation and preparedness


Governments face increasing pressure to respond swiftly and effectively to rapidly evolving international migration flows. Anticipation is key to this response, but remains a challenge. This guide offers measures to introduce, run and strengthen migration forecasting systems and preparedness strategies. It follows the forecasting lifecycle from problem definition to communication and system learning.
Report

2025 Population statement


An exploration of how Australia’s population is changing and what the future might look like. The population surpassed 27.5 million in 2025 and growth will slow due to lower migration and fertility. The report includes sections on ageing, life expectancy and mortality, and introduces new 40‑year projections for states, territories, cities and regions.
Report

Inquiry into projecting Australia’s urban and regional futures: population dynamics, regional mobility and planning responses


This research investigates different ways to predict local population growth and change. It looks at what drives people to move between urban and regional Australia and what this migration means for planning infrastructure and housing to support population growth and change.
Report

Understanding contemporary demographic and economic drivers of household mobility and their policy implications

Brian Lee, Parian Hoseini

This research looked at why people move between urban and regional Australia, and identified the social, economic, demographic and policy factors driving these population shifts. Apart from 2013, since 2007 more people have moved from capital cities than to them. The report concludes that policies to attract regional migration can be improved.
Report

2024 Population statement


An exploration of Australia’s population dynamics following the COVID‑19 pandemic. Australia’s population is projected to grow from 27.1 million people in 2024 to 31.3 million people by 2034–35. Net overseas migration peaked in 2022–23 and is declining.