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Short-term employment forecasts: 2014-2017

21 Nov 2014

Employment forecasts over the three years to March are presented in this report.

Employment forecasts over the 3 years to March 2017 are presented in this report. These employment forecasts will be used to inform the Ministry’s advice relating to immigration priorities, and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training over the next 2-3 years.

The Ministry uses a short-term forecasting model that draws on the latest macroeconomic forecasts by the Treasury, covering overall GDP growth as well as detailed forecasts of terms of trade, exchange rates and interest rates. The detailed macroeconomic forecasts enable economic activity in broad industries to be forecast which are also consistent with overall economic growth.

The forecasts suggest overall strong employment demand in the near term in response to buoyant economic growth associated with the Canterbury rebuild. It is expected to peak in the year to March 2015 and decline gradually over the next two years.

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