In this Lowy Institute Analysis Rodger Shanahan examines changes in Iranian foreign policy under President Rouhani. He argues that while the Iranian President has changed the tone of Iranian foreign policy, changing the substance will prove much more difficult. 

Key findings

  • Rouhani is a centrist rather than a reformist and sees the economy as the key to maximising Iranian national power.
  • The nuclear negotiations are central to ending Iran’s international isolation and reaching a modus vivendi with the United States.
  • But a nuclear deal will not end suspicion of Iran among its neighbours in the region and may even increase it.
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