Economic forecasting

Policy report

19 Feb 2019

The principles of free market, liberal, democratic capitalism are under assault, argues Emeritus Professor Wolfgang Kasper in this essay.


14 Feb 2019

CEDA’s 2019 Economic and Political Overview looks back at the economic and political events that shaped 2018, as well as looking ahead to 2019. A new addition for 2019 is an overview of policy and how it relates to economic and political outcomes. Issues are...


6 Feb 2019

This report predicts that early action to diversify the economy and invest in regional development could ensure the Hunter Valley avoids the worst economic impacts of a decline in coal mining as the world acts on climate change.


22nd CEO survey: key findings for New Zealand
21 Jan 2019

This report highlights a trend of pessimism regarding economic growth, as New Zealand CEOs feel increasingly uncertain about the economic future. The survey also gauged CEO's attitudes towards AI as well as data and analytics.

Working paper

11 Jan 2019

This paper outlines the challenges of forecasting and communicating estimates of the revenue impact of policies over the medium term. The variety of policy costings that Treasury undertakes and the benefits and shortcomings of static and dynamic microsimulation approaches are discussed, with the paper concluding...


21 Dec 2018

Although some national security policy makers in the U.S are pressing for an economic ‘decoupling’ of the U.S and China, the data in this report suggest separation on any significant scale would be as damaging to Amrica as to China, and perhaps much more so....


Delivering a strong, safe and inclusive digital economy
18 Dec 2018

This report sets out the opportunities and the challenges in maximising the benefits that a digital economy can bring. It highlights the work already happening across government and identifies further actions required to ensure all Australians can thrive in a global digital economy.


The superannuation sky is not falling
4 Dec 2018

New Zealand is not alone in facing an ageing population and the associated future fiscal pressures. This report argues that the policy conversation is much more complex in New Zealand than as portrayed in the media.

Working paper

29 Nov 2018

'Nowcasting' is the prediction of the current state of the economy based on a range of partial indicators before the official economic statistics are released. It assists in the early identification of ‘turning points’ or significant shifts in momentum in the economy.


21 Nov 2018

This paper explores the future of public sector agricultural forecasting in the context of the past evolution of ABARES work. It identifies a range of challenges and opportunities for people involved in public sector forecasting.


20 Nov 2018

This paper argues that there has been some progress in introducing economic reforms, but the effect has been stifled by the implementation of protectionist measures. More reforms will be needed if Indonesia is to boost economic growth and attract much-needed investment, especially in infrastructure.


14 Nov 2018

This report puts the openness and international connectedness of the Australian economy into historical and comparative perspective. Understanding these trends is important for public perceptions of globalisation and how these perceptions inform public policy.


13 Nov 2018

This report establishes quantitative and qualitative information on what Pacific New Zealanders’ contributions are to the economy, from a living standards perspective. This is a critical component in our understanding of the range of capital stocks and assets that Pacific New Zealanders possess and use...


8 Nov 2018

This report argues that to ensure Western Australia realises economic opportunities in the Indo-Pacific, the state government should orient its international engagement towards the emerging global growth countries of India, Indonesia, Vietnam and wider ASEAN.

Case study

9 Oct 2018

Revitalisation of an urban stream improves amenity and increases land value.

This project includes transformation of a number of drains in the heavily urbanised 23.35 km2 Bannister Creek Catchment into living streams and wetlands. An economic study was undertaken on one of the sites...


1 Oct 2018

‘Big Australia’ means an inordinate appeal to high population growth in order to boost growth in aggregate GDP, and in so doing, devaluing the environmental and social consequences. Why so, asks this report, and must it remain so?


Quantifying the bottom line of improved productivity, retention, and wellness
1 Oct 2018

The business case for High Performance Buildings (HPBs) traditionally cites energy savings and increased asset value as the most appealing incentives. But another – and arguably greater – form of enhanced value creation that comes through HPBs is rarely discussed: HPBs benefit the people who...


6 Sep 2018

This report analyses projections for receipts and spending at a detailed level over the period to 2028‐29 to explain the main reasons for the projected return to surplus, fall in net debt, and increase in net financial worth over this period. This analysis takes the...


15 Aug 2018

This analysis reviews Indonesia’s recent economic performance and sets out why the present growth path is inadequate. It analyses structural problems with the current growth model and assesses to what extent Jokowi’s policy efforts have improved Indonesia’s growth trajectory.


The 13th annual statistical report of the HILDA Survey
31 Jul 2018

The Melbourne Institute publishes the latest findings from the HILDA Survey each year, allowing Australians to see how different aspects of their lives have changed over time. This report presents key findings from Waves 1 to 16 of the HILDA Survey.



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