Marriage polling and the warhorse factor

Same-sex marriage Public opinion Australia

How many Australians have already returned their same-sex marriage survey to the Australian Bureau of Statistics? Might it be about 2.4 million? Or more than double that, 5.8 million? Or could it be as high as 10.4 million?

The people at Newspoll, whose results are published in the Australian, estimate the first figure. They posed the question in their fortnightly voting-intentions survey between last Thursday and Sunday and found that only 15 per cent had already “voted.” The electoral roll contains a touch over sixteen million people, and 15 per cent of that is 2.4 million.

Essential Vision’s latest survey, conducted from Friday to Monday and published in the Guardian, found 36 per cent. And “leaked” internal polling from Yes campaign headquarters (online panel, 1000 respondents, Thursday lunchtime to Friday lunchtime) throws up some startling numbers: 90 per cent have received their forms, 88 per cent of those have filled them in, and 73 per cent of the 90 per cent have already posted them back…

Read the full article in Inside Story

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