The design of the National Energy Guarantee is extraordinarily complex. Its merits are in dispute. But the politics is simple.

The government wants a deal the Coalition can unite behind — one so nuanced that both its realists and its climate change deniers can support it — while convincing the public that the policy will actually reduce prices, improve network reliability and reduce emissions.

To achieve that, the plan has to win the support of the electricity industry — which, by and large, it has done — the states, which appear to be holding out, and probably the federal Labor Party, which is yet to declare its hand.

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