WARM THE SET and cool the tinnies. While 2009 was a shocker of a year for Australian election watchers – with just one (albeit an interesting one) in Queensland in March – the next twelve months will yield four fat contests, including the fattest of all, a federal election. Tasmania and South Australia vote in March, the federal election will probably be held somewhere between August and October, and Victoria goes to the polls in November.

General expectations about all but Tasmania are clear: Labor incumbents will romp home. According to online betting markets, in South Australia, Victoria and federally there is only about one chance in five of a Coalition/Liberal win. The Tasmanian contest is viewed as much closer, with Labor slightly favoured to hold on.

I don’t see it this way. In fact, I’m tipping two changes of government in 2010