The National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) at the University of Canberra independently modelled the following components of the 2019-20 Budget.
- One-off energy payment for certain welfare recipients in 2018-19 and 2019-20
- Increased Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO) between 2018-19 and 2021-22
- Low Income Tax Offset (LITO) change from 2022-23 onwards
- Personal income tax thresholds and marginal tax rates change in 2022-23 and 2024-25
The estimation is based on NATSEM’s STINMOD+ microsimulation model, where we simulate the impact of the policy change on households based on the latest ABS Survey of Income and Housing (SIH). The base dataset is adjusted to reflect the population and economic change between the time of collection and the current year. Small area estimates are derived using calibrated area weights based on the latest population Census. Please note that this analysis only reports the direct effect of the budget measures and does not estimate the secondary economic impact.