The United States and China are entering into a period of intense strategic competition. Canberra has responded, in part, by increasing its security cooperation with Washington and other powers in an effort to deter Chinese behaviour that is threatening to disrupt regional security. But risks within the US-China nuclear relationship due to this growing rivalry receive less attention than China’s grey zone and conventional military threats in Australia’s national security policy and debates.1 As the prospect of high-intensity military conflict in the Indo-Pacific becomes more likely, Beijing, Washington, and Canberra will need to manage nuclear risks more proactively.

Key points:

• There is a small risk of deliberate nuclear use and a larger risk of inadvertent nuclear use in a future US-China conflict, both of which could increase if the possibility of conflict grows or if Washington or Beijing pursue more ambitious nuclear strategies.
• China’s nuclear strategy has to date focused on deterring an adversary’s nuclear threats and use. While its recent nuclear arsenal modernisation is consistent with this strategy, Beijing has acquired new capabilities that could enable a shift to a nuclear first-use strategy.
• The United States and China are not in a nuclear arms race. Nevertheless, efforts by the United States to maintain its current margin of superiority over China’s nuclear forces, or to deter North Korea or Russia, could prompt further growth in China’s arsenal.
• Australia’s interests would be best served by an allied military strategy for countering China that emphasises robust conventional capabilities, relies on US nuclear weapons to deter the unlikely prospect of Chinese nuclear first-use, and strives to mitigate the risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation.
• Australia should work through existing mechanisms for consultation in the alliance, as well as multilateral fora, to lessen the risks of nuclear use in a future US-China conflict scenario and support informal arms control among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.