Report

The production gap

Governments’ planned fossil fuel production remains dangerously out of sync with Paris Agreement limits
Publisher
Paris Agreement Climate change Fossil fuels Carbon emissions Emissions reduction
Resources
Attachment Size
The production gap 12.6 MB
Description

This report tracks the discrepancy between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. The report represents a collaboration of several research and academic institutions, including input from more than 40 experts.

Key findings:

  • Governments plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The production gap has remained largely unchanged since our first analysis in 2019.
  • Global fossil fuel production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C.
  • Most major oil and gas producers are planning on increasing production out to 2030 or beyond, and several major coal producers are planning on continuing or increasing production.
  • G20 countries have directed more new funding to fossil fuels than clean energy since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • International public finance for the production of fossil fuels from G20 countries and multilateral development banks (MDBs) has significantly decreased in recent years.
  • Governments have a primary role to play in closing the production gap and in ensuring that the transition away from fossil fuels is just and equitable.
Publication Details
Access Rights Type:
open