This report tracks the discrepancy between governments’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. The report represents a collaboration of several research and academic institutions, including input from more than 40 experts.
- Governments plan to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The production gap has remained largely unchanged since our first analysis in 2019.
- Global fossil fuel production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C.
- Most major oil and gas producers are planning on increasing production out to 2030 or beyond, and several major coal producers are planning on continuing or increasing production.
- G20 countries have directed more new funding to fossil fuels than clean energy since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- International public finance for the production of fossil fuels from G20 countries and multilateral development banks (MDBs) has significantly decreased in recent years.
- Governments have a primary role to play in closing the production gap and in ensuring that the transition away from fossil fuels is just and equitable.