The UK is capable of producing 98% of its electricity from clean sources by 2030 if existing commitments are delivered on time. However, the current government is lagging behind, and the UK risks missing out on opportunities to cut consumer bills and become a net exporter of electricity to the EU.

In some ways, the UK has been at the forefront of energy transition. Over the last two decades, the UK quickly transitioned from a power system that relied heavily on coal to generating just 2% of its power from coal last year. Meanwhile clean power expanded, with wind power growing rapidly to provide a quarter of the UK’s power in 2022. A mix of conditions enabled this staggering shift: ambitious short term power sector targets; new regulations putting a price on air pollution and emissions from fossil fuels; stable and consistent policy support for offshore wind power that gave confidence to industry; and reforms to the energy market. 

However, the UK now risks ceding its advantage in the clean power transition. The government has allowed key enablers to meet energy transition targets to slip. The latest warning sign was a renewable auction round that failed to secure any offshore wind capacity, a critical technology for the UK’s clean power ambition. With the 2030 offshore wind target of 50 GW now highly at risk, the government must heed this warning and take immediate action to ensure future auctions secure sufficient capacity. Targets have to be implemented for benefits to be felt; if the UK can prioritise hitting its ambitious goals, households and the UK economy stand to reap the rewards. If not, the costs of fossil fuel reliance will continue to fall on households.

Building on the existing research, the authors show that if the UK can reach its targets, ambitious decarbonisation of the power sector will substantially bring down household bills. These benefits are not some distant promise: by the end of the decade clean power can deliver savings, lowering costs of living compared to a future in which the government’s plans are not delivered on time.