This paper proposes that the cost of the AUKUS trilateral security partnership is unknown. The widely-used estimate of $368 billion over 30 years is based on a three-year old, one-page estimate with no working provided. It finds that AUKUS fails to deliver even the most basic levels of transparency.

Whenever suggestions are made for additional spending on education, health, climate mitigation, the arts or environmental protection, questions are immediately asked about how the new proposal will be financed. However, neither the Government nor the Opposition have expressed any concern about how to pay for AUKUS, most notably the nuclear submarine deal that forms part of AUKUS Pillar 1. 

From the available estimates, it appears that the cost will average in the low tens of billions each year, with most costs being incurred between the mid-2030s and mid-2050s.

The paper concludes that there is no ‘right’ answer to the question ‘how to pay for AUKUS’. The AUKUS submarine deal has not been justified; it has simply been stated. It is for the Government to explain how it will be paid for.