This Energy Outlook article explores the long-term future for electricity in New Zealand using scenario analysis. Based on this analysis, we present key insights for investors, grid planners, policy makers and consumers. It presents modelling results to 2040, and is the first part of a series of Energy Outlook Insight publications, which will focus on different parts of the energy system.
This article is focused on electricity and has two main parts. In the first part we define our scenarios and sensitivities. We do this by outlining what our key modelling assumptions are, and how they differ between scenarios and sensitivities.
While no one scenario can be used to predict the future, by considering the scenarios and sensitivities together we can make general conclusions about the future. In the second part of this article we present these as ‘key insights’ about electricity supply, greenhouse gas emissions, and prices.
Readers should interpret the results and insights in this article within the modelling framework from which they were produced. In our modelling we assume the following principles:
- The price of energy reflects the underlying cost of new supply, to ensure new investment occurs and to encourage efficient energy use.
- Timely investment in the lowest cost generation is facilitated through transparent markets and efficient resource allocation mechanisms.
- Competition, and careful regulatory scrutiny of network investment decisions, ensures prices reflect underlying costs.
This article is supported by detailed data tables available for download below. For information on our modelling methodology, please see our energy modelling methodology webpage.