Introduction

This publication assesses the political impact of the new Victorian electoral boundaries, proclaimed on 17 October 2013. The new boundaries will be used for the first time at the 2014 state election.

The publication is based on the results of the 2010 election and does not provide predictions for the 2014 election. The estimated new margins listed in this publication are best thought of as estimated results for the 2010 election had it been fought on the new boundaries.

However, the estimated new margins cannot take into account the differences in candidate and campaign effort that would have occurred if the 2010 election had been fought on the new boundaries. The difficulty of splitting polling place catchment areas to match new electoral boundaries, as well as allocating declaration votes to new electorates, means the estimated margins in this publication should be treated as approximations.