This report provides interim modelling results of the distributional modelling which estimates the impact on families from government policy decisions taken since the last Federal election in 2013.


This paper provides the distributional household impact of the main ‘hip‐pocket’ Budget measures contained in the 2015‐16 Federal Budget.

The research involved the estimation of the distributional impact on family incomes of the major changes to the tax and government benefit system under the Coalition Government as compared to under the previous Labor Government. NATSEM’s analysis does not analyse the merits of measures in the budget – just the financial impact on households in a ‘day‐after’ context.

The NATSEM modelling focuses on the major changes to the taxation and government benefit changes as they relate to family budgets. This analysis is an independent summary of the results and an explanation of the underlying methods used and assumptions.

The NATSEM analysis does not include any potential ‘second‐round’ effects such as behavioural changes to the policy measures. This is standard budget convention. The impacts of bracket creep are included in the NATSEM distributional modelling, however, as the tables below are a comparison between two sets of policies which both include bracket creep the overall impact from a ‘comparison’ standpoint is nil.

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