Examining the relationship between commuting patterns, employment growth and long term unemployment in the Sydney major statistical region
ABSTRACT: The paper will develop a framework to understand how employment growth and commuting patterns (modelled using Journey to Work data) interact to determine the spatial distribution of unemployment in the Statistical Local Areas within the Sydney MSR. The paper is part of an on-going project aimed at understanding the relationship between regional employment growth and unemployment. We seek to explore how the benefits of employment growth are distributed across space. Employment change over time across urban areas is resolved by a combination of labour market responses summarised as: (a) changes in the local employment of residents, which can incorporate net in or out-migration; and (b) changes in the level of net in- or out-commuting. In areas of employment stagnation or decline, the capacity of some residents to avoid long term unemployment will be dependent on their ability to secure jobs elsewhere in the urban area and either out-commute or relocate.
