Abstract

Today digital technology is viewed as additive to the physical world: something that enhances but does not replace the use of physical infrastructure. However, this paper discusses the next wave of digital technology adoption that can potentially be substitutive for physical infrastructure. In particular, we examine the impact of emerging information and communications technologies (ICT) on the demand for roads over the next three to four decades. Australia’s population is estimated to grow from 23.5 million in 2014 to 37.6 million in 2050. If we continue to build and operate roads as we do today we are likely to need about two and a half times more road capacity in 2050 than we have today, to cater for this population growth. However this paper estimates that, using a simple but realistic set of assumptions, the road capacity requirement in 2050 will be roughly equivalent to the capacity existing today. This is due to the combined impact of technology adoption over the next 35 years which is predicted to lessen the need to build new infrastructure, peaking at about 150 percent of today’s capacity (as opposed to a 250 percent increase).