This report provides forecasts of job openings for new entrants to the Australian labour market by occupation and industry for the period 2017 to 2024. Job openings in an occupation are a result of growth in the occupation and the need to replace workers retiring from, or permanently leaving, the occupation. The forecasts provide job seekers, students and career advisors with information on future job opportunities, and helps them to make informed choices about which education and training courses to undertake. Policymakers may use the forecasts for long-term planning in education and training and workforce development.
These employment forecasts — achieved through modelling — reflect the industrial and occupational structure of the economy as it adjusts to changes in technology, business investment decisions, government spending, household preferences and international trade. The outsourcing of services by firms, globalisation and the offshoring of jobs have an additional effect on the structure of the economy, as may the reorganisation of firms and the adoption of new human resource management practices.
The report considers two scenarios for the Australian economy: the first and most likely scenario is based on historic paths to date; and the second, on high productivity. In the first scenario, we model the most likely outcome for the Australian economy, given all of the information available at 30 June 2016. In the high-productivity scenario, we assume a higher productivity growth than in the most likely scenario.