Forecasting future outcomes

Stronger Communities Investment Unit — 2018 Insights Report
Child welfare Child protection Family services New South Wales
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Forecasting future outcomes (report) 22.39 MB

In November 2015, the NSW Government commissioned Mr David Tune to conduct an independent review of the out of home care (OOHC) system, in response to the growth of the OOHC population and continuing poor outcomes for the most vulnerable children and their families. The NSW Government released its response to the Tune Review in November 2016, termed Their Futures Matter.

Their Futures Matter is a landmark reform of the NSW Government to deliver improved outcomes for vulnerable children, young people and their families. The vision of Their Futures Matter is to create a service system that delivers coordinated, wrap-around and evidence-based supports for children and families to transform their social outcomes.

Central to this vision is an investment approach that will direct and prioritise whole-of-government funding to deliver prioritised solutions that achieve measurable and meaningful outcomes. An actuarial model of future outcomes and costs of providing key government services to children and young people in NSW underpins the investment approach. Their Futures Matter (TFM) has commissioned Taylor Fry to build this actuarial model (TFM Investment Model or the model) and to assist with the identification of vulnerable groups who are likely to have poorer outcomes. Vulnerable groups will be prioritised through the implementation of coordinated, wrap-around and evidence-based supports.

This report, which was authored by Taylor Fry with support from TFM and stakeholder agencies, presents key results and insights from the TFM Investment Model.

The purpose of the report is to define groups of vulnerable children and young people and highlight the poor social outcomes and high government service and support costs needed to address the needs of these groups. The report examines the personal and family characteristics that drive the social outcomes of individuals in these groups, and points out the interdependencies between service use.

The report is an important input into the work of Their Futures Matter. It is intended to support business cases for new policies and interventions aimed at improving outcomes for vulnerable children. Subsequent work by Their Futures matter will begin to analyse root causes of vulnerability and analyse the potential policy implications of this analysis.


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