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Victorian gas market – demand side measures to avoid forecast supply shortfall

Energy demand Energy industries Energy resources Natural gas Victoria

Northmore Gordon have been engaged to undertake a study into the forecast gas shortfall in Victoria and review the potential for demand side measures to eliminate this shortfall. This includes understanding what alternatives to natural gas exist for residential, commercial, and industrial customers and what programs and policies, if adopted, could encourage their adoption.

Using data from the 2019 GSOO and modelled Victorian gas demand for each sector Northmore Gordon have estimated the annual surplus or shortfall in Victoria until 2030. Forecast production estimates were taken from existing, committed, and anticipated projects, but did not include any available supply from northern regions transported via gas pipeline to Victoria. This was done to focus the investigation on whether Victoria can meet its own demand with its own production. To address uncertainty in long term gas demand forecasts and to investigate the potential for demand side measures to mitigate supply shortfalls, a constant gas demand between 2020 and 2030 was modelled.

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