The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) forecasts electricity supply reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year period to inform decisions by market participants, investors, and policy-makers. The ESOO includes a reliability forecast identifying any potential reliability gaps in the coming five years, as defined according to the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO).

Key findings:

• The expected reliability outlook has improved for summer 2020-21 and across the five-year outlook, due to lower forecast peak demand (which includes the projected impacts of COVID-19 next summer), minor generation and transmission augmentations, and significant development of large-scale renewable resources. However, as a result of COVID-19 and other factors, the uncertainty range of this outlook has increased compared to previous years.
• Forecast minimum operational (grid) demand is declining rapidly, in all NEM regions, due to increasing contributions of distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation to meet consumer demand in the daytime.
• A summer of unprecedented weather events, followed by the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrates the need for increased vigilance in supporting the reliable delivery of affordable energy while taking necessary steps to increase system resilience to minimise disruptions for consumers and businesses.