NATSEM undertakes independent and impartial research that contributes to policy design and analysis. Their work includes models that show how policy scenarios shape tax and welfare payments. This report is based on the STINMOD+ tax and transfer microsimulation model, which is used to estimate the impact of the policy change on selected households.

Over the last decade, NATSEM has focussed its analysis around how the federal budget impacts everyday Australians and households. This continues this year. They have maintained an emphasis on those who may be missing out in society, particularly in terms of poverty and income inequity. This also continues this year.

This year, the team has again crunched the numbers. But it has been a particularly tough year. Their Tax/Transfer model draws on pre-COVID data at a time when there have been huge changes in the labour force due to COVID-19. The Australian Bureau of Statistics {ABS} has done a magnificent job this year using data from the Tax Office (One Touch payroll data) to compensate for such gaps and present data on the changes to employment as soon as is possible. The team has taken this information analysed it and presented it by industry, and more recently by geography, right across Australia.