This economic and fiscal outlook includes the Government’s spending and income for the current financial year and the next four years. 

The potential magnitude and persistence of the economic effects of the United States administration's announced increase in tariffs on 3 April 2025 has resulted in greater-than-usual uncertainty around the outlook. Given the increase in tariffs was larger than expected, there is now more uncertainty around the outlook for economic activity, commodity prices and inflation.

The 2025 pre-election economic and fiscal outlook (PEFO) includes:

• the Government’s spending and income for the current financial year (2024–25) and the next four years (2025–26 to 2028–29)
• the economic and other assumptions, including economic growth, employment and inflation, used in preparing this financial information
• a discussion of how the Government’s financial situation could change in response to changes in those assumptions
• Government debt aggregates
• financial statements and reporting standards
• Government decisions made since the 2025–26 Budget
• the risks that could impact future financial outcomes.