This report presents the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO's) independent projections for the balance sheet, major fiscal aggregates, and revenue and expense categories across the medium term (2026-27 to 2032-33). It also includes a scenario analysis of Australia’s long-term fiscal sustainability to 2062-63.

The report presents the PBO's annual medium-term budget outlook based on the policy settings, budget estimates, and economic parameters of the most recent Australian Government budget, as well as how the outlook has changed from our previous update. The medium-term projections presented here are based on the 2022-23 October Budget. Comparisons are made to the Beyond the budget 2021-22, released in September 2021 and based on the 2021-22 Budget.

The long-term fiscal sustainability analysis presented here is also based on the fiscal settings of the 2022-23 October Budget. It considers how the balance sheet could evolve after the end of the medium term (from 2033-34 onwards).

As the framework for fiscal sustainability centres on the balance sheet, the PBO presents its medium-term outlook for the balance sheet and major aggregates first, followed by our long-term fiscal sustainability scenarios, and finally more detail on government revenue and expenses across the medium term. For more information on our projection methodology, see Appendix A.