This report provides an update on issues caused by the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic that affect international students and the international education sector.

Previous Mitchell Institute reports have highlighted how problems affecting international students impact Australia's universities, Australia's economy and local communities (Hurley, 2020; Hurley & Van Dyke, 2020). These reports showed that international students have transformed our cities and that issues experienced by international students will affect many Australians.

This report uses the most up-to-date available data to refine previous research. The analysis in this report shows that Australia's international education industry is facing severe disruption characterised by a continuing reduction in both currently enrolled international students and the number of international students inside Australia.

This disruption will have long-term consequences. For universities, this includes continuing uncertainty and losses in revenue. For the broader Australian community, the impact of the international student crisis will affect cities, and communities within cities, differently.

When the worst effects of the coronavirus pandemic are over, Australia will have a radically different international education sector. Re-building the sector is a priority for all levels of government and this report concludes by considering some of the policy implications. While the crisis may not be over, the time is right to start planning how the international education sector should function in a post-coronavirus environment.

Key points:

• Applications for international student visas have collapsed. Applications for student visas for individuals who are outside Australia are approximately 80–90% below what they were at the same time in 2019.
• The longer the travel restrictions remain in place, the greater the losses associated with the international education sector. Modelling based on the rate of decline experienced in the first six months of the pandemic suggests that, compared to October 2019, there will be an approximate 50% reduction in international students inside Australia by July 2021. If the travel restrictions remain in place until July 2022, the modelling suggests about 165,000 international students will remain inside Australia, a reduction of over 410,000 compared to October 2019.
• The current international education crisis is not just a university problem. Approximately 57%, or $21.4 billion, of the $37.5 billion in annual revenue associated with international education comes in the form of goods and services spent in the wider economy. The reduction in international students living in Australia will affect the many Australian jobs and businesses that rely on international education.
• It is unclear whether programs that enable currently enrolled international students outside Australia to return will have a substantial impact. This is because many international students inside Australia are choosing to leave the country.
• There is a strong association between migration policy and the international education sector. This current crisis may be an opportunity to implement policy reform that builds a more sustainable international education sector.