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Are extreme rainfall events increasing in frequency?

Case study of the 2022 floods in eastern Australia
Publisher
Climate change Extreme weather events Floods Australia
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Description

Torrential rains along the east coast of Australia during February and March 2022 have been blamed on climate change. Specifically, a narrative has developed suggesting that rainfall is becoming more extreme.

However, analysis of the 20 longest rainfall records in the 2022 flood zone does not support this claim. There has been no overall increase in the intensity or frequency of extremely wet days. The wettest year, measured as the year with the highest number of 99th percentile rainfall days since 1900, is 1974.

A search of the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) was undertaken to find the highest daily rainfall total. A search of this same dataset was undertaken to find locations in the flood affected regions with continuous daily rainfall records that begin before 1900. These locations are Armidale, Ballina, Brisbane, Bungendore, Byron Bay, Casino, Grafton, Gympie, Kempsey, Landsborough, Lismore, Lowood, Maryborough, Mullumbimby, Rosewood, Stanthorpe, Tenterfield, Tewantin, Warwick and Yamba.

This research report formed the basis of a submission to the NSW Flood Inquiry, made in May 2022.

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