Understanding spatial patterns of population change is vital in planning for services and infrastructure, and in managing the pressures created as local populations grow and decline. A large shock to the Australian economy and society, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, has the potential to create new pressure for settlement pattern change.

In this context, this report investigates regional population change and internal migration flows during the peak period of the pandemic (2020-21), contrasting with a five-year period representing the medium term, and the population change for 2021-22.

The report uses the BCARR migration geography, which separates regions by characteristics including city status, and whether coastal, inland or remote.

Key findings:

• The impact of the pandemic on population was very focused on capital cities, which collectively experienced population loss in 2020-21 of 46,000 or 0.3 per cent of their population. This was well beyond the impact to regional areas.
• The impact of the pandemic on population growth rates was noticeable for both inland and coastal cities, though much less pronounced than for the capitals.
• In contrast with the cities, the coastal country areas group experienced its strongest population growth rate in 2020-21. This was the highest rate among all groups that year, at 1.6 per cent. This continued an established pattern, as coastal country areas were growing more quickly each year before the pandemic.
• Age has a strong influence on migration, not only in terms of a person’s propensity to migrate, but also the choice of location.
• Inland country areas collectively had a net gain of almost 2,150 people during the pandemic year, compared to a net loss in the five years of just under 400 people. In both periods, net gains came from the capital cities and remote areas, and net losses went to both coastal groups and inland cities.