The purpose of this publication is to provide information to assist registered participants and other persons in making informed decisions about investment in pipeline capacity and other aspects of the natural gas industry.

AEMO publishes this Gas Statement of Opportunities in accordance with section 91DA of the National Gas Law and Part 15D of the National Gas Rules.

This publication is generally based on information available to AEMO as at 31 December 2023, unless otherwise indicated.

Key findings:

• From 2025, risks of shortfalls on some days in winter are forecast in southern Australia under extreme peak emand conditions, if extreme weather conditions drive very high demand for heating, coincident with high demand for gas-powered electricity generation (GPG). Deep and shallow gas storages are vital to meeting peak demands, while also providing seasonal flexibility, and the ongoing availability of stored gas ahead of winter conditions continues to be important to mitigate adequacy risks.
• In 2026 and 2027, the potential for small seasonal supply gaps are forecast in each winter in southern Australia under sustained high gas usage conditions.
• From 2028, the forecast annual supply gaps increase in magnitude as southern production declines, meaning a more structural need for anticipated and currently uncertain new supply develops, despite declining residential, commercial and industrial consumption.