This evaluation assesses the effectiveness of the Tasmanian Jobs Programme (TJP) pilot wage subsidy trial in helping job seekers unemployed for six months or more achieve sustained employment and reduce welfare dependency. The evaluation used a mixed-methods framework, combining quantitative administrative data and labour force statistics with qualitative evidence from employer, employment provider and regional coordinator surveys.

Outcomes for the 2014-2015 study cohort were evaluated against an econometric control group of non-subsidised placements. The evaluation found program take-up was very low, with only 363 commencements (18% of the 2,000 allocated places), resulting in high deadweight loss (two thirds of employers noted the subsidy did not alter their hiring decision).

Barriers included low awareness and rigid initial design rules requiring full-time commitments. However, actual participants saw highly positive outcomes: 77% achieved a 13-week stay and 64% reached a 26-week stay. Participants exhibited a 13 percentage point higher probability of completely transitioning off income support after nine months.

The report recommends future wage subsidy models must be closely customised to regional labor market contexts. Key proposals include offering flexible part-time and full-time eligibility paths, expanding incentive sizing or developing upfront/partial payments to offset small business hiring liabilities, executing directly targeted informational outreach campaigns, and backing supply-side wage interventions with holistic demand-side job creation strategies.