Australia has the fastest population growth of major developed countries, and projections show a reduced infrastructure spend per capita, putting huge pressure on major cities.

This report reveals:

• Population growth rate has increased above historic trends, largely due to immigration.
• The ABS predicts population will be around 40 million in 2061 and up to 70 million by 2101.
• Almost all of these people will live in major cities.
• Australia has the fastest population growth of major developed countries.
• Despite rapid population growth, discussion around population policy and planning is almost non-existent.

Summary

Since the Sydney Olympics in the year 2000 the population of Australia has grown by 25 per cent. In fact, since the Sydney Olympics, Australia’s population has grown more than the entire population of Sydney at that time.

While our political leaders vacillate between being for a ‘big Australia’ or a ‘sustainable population’, data shows that our population growth rate is unaffected by this rhetoric. Our population growth rate is affected to some extent by changing economic fortunes, our population has increased steadily since the second world war. Each year our population increases by around 400,000 – a new Canberra every year.

In the last decade our population growth has increased slightly above historic trends, largely due to migration. Indeed more immigrants came to Australia since 2000 than arrived between 1950 and 1980. Now is the golden age of immigration, as much as the 1950s and 1960s were.

Our population growth is forecast to continue at similar rates. Based on current trends, the ABS projects that our population will grow to around 40 million in 2061 and depending on migration policies, will grow to between 42 million and 70 million by 2101.

Almost all of these people will live in major cities. In 2060 both Melbourne and Sydney are forecast to have larger populations than all of Australia had in 1950. And in 2060 Perth and Brisbane together will have almost the same population as Australia had 100 years before, in 1960.

Australia has the fastest population growth in the OECD other than Israel and Luxembourg, which are very different cases and not good comparisons. Australiare very different cases considerably faster than that of Canada, the other great Commonwealth multicultural success story. Under reasonable assumptions of future population growth, Australia could have the same population as Canada by 2090 (about 50 million) and of Italy, a country currently two and a half times as populous as Australia, by 2100 (about 53 million).

Despite our rapid population growth being at historic rates and among the highest in the world, it is all too rarely discussed. Whether this rate of population growth is ‘good’ or ‘bad’ depends on your point of view. More importantly, however, it will depend on how well we plan for our future population. Australia needs serious debate around what our population policy should be and how to plan for our future population.