Indonesia aspires to become a high income country by 2030. Demographic and economic trends suggest that this might be possible but emerging challenges arising from climate change and food and water security could hamper the country’s efforts to reach this goal.

This paper examines population trends, the impact of racial differences on political stability and economic trends in order to ascertain the kinds of challenges that the country will need to address in the near future if it is to meet its developmental goals. The paper then examines where the country is at in terms of the future challenges of climate change and food and water security. It finds that without adequate governance and a strong desire to tackle these challenges, Indonesia is unlikely to be able to overcome the hurdles that currently stand in its path towards greater development.

Key points

• The population of Indonesia is expected to exceed 300 million by mid-century. This population will likely be wealthier and more urbanised than it is currently. Such growth could place additional strain on food and water security.
• To ensure unemployment levels remain manageable, the government needs to aim for greater economic growth. This will require investment in infrastructure which is currently held up by bureaucratic inefficiencies.
• Climate change is expected to exacerbate food and water insecurities as the country experiences changes to traditional seasonal conditions. The current policy of building dams to improve access to irrigation is likely to relieve some of these pressures.
• Poor food distribution networks and self-sufficiency policies have the potential to worsen food security. A lax attitude towards the regulation of water supplies, furthermore, is likely to lead to deteriorating water security.