The Western Australian Planning Commission has prepared a set of technical papers as part of its Plan for the Sustainable Development of Greater Perth. The plan is being prepared using the technical resources of the Department for Planning and Infrastructure.

Population and Housing encompasses issues that a burgeoning Western Australia will face as its current population of just under two million reaches nearly three million by 2031. Greater Perth’s population is projected to increase from 1.55 million in 2001 to 2.39 million in the next thirty years, representing 82 per cent of the State’s total increase. Most of these people are expected to seek a home in the Perth, Mandurah and Murray areas. This paper looks at addressing the needs and aspirations of this “ new ” population, the majority of which will come from immigration, while about a third will be from births in the community.

Over recent years, Greater Perth has witnessed an increasing demand for bigger houses, although fewer people are living in them. Planners must respond to this trend, which is expected to continue, and the need to provide at least an additional 13,500 new houses, on average every year, to accommodate the 2031 population. This means land for about 400,000 new homes will be needed, 370,000 of which are expected to be in the Perth, Mandurah and Murray areas.  Greater Perth’s increasing proportion of older people, which is typical of the developed world, is forecast to continue with the 1971 median age of 26.2 years becoming 40.8 years by 2031. The ratio of “ dependent ” people, namely children aged 0-14 and the over 65 age group, will be 55.2 per cent by 2031.

The “ greying ” of our population gives rise to enormous social, economic and political issues, as the huge shift from a youth to aged- dominated community gathers pace. Further key trends include declining fertility rates, increasing survival rates and the uncertain but important force of migration.

Western Australia is expected to continue to attract about 10 per cent of all immigration to Australia but if no migration occurs, the population in Greater Perth would actually decline from 2027.

A key challenge for planners is accommodating the future behaviour and demands of the unpredictable and ageing Baby Boomers, the impact of falling fertility and ageing of the population on the number of workers available to support the non-working sector. In addition, there will be fewer younger people to house and care for their ageing family members. The impact of these demographic change has been a more rapid increase in houses than people, a preference for private car usage and single homes on large blocks leading to a low density city. However, there are signs that these preferences are changing and acceptance of smaller single residential lots and medium density housing is increasing as people become more concerned about housing affordability, urban sprawl and sense of community.

Key challenges for planners and the community include the type, affordability and location of new dwellings; the efficient and effective supply of infrastructure including gas, water and telecommunications; the provision of roads and public transport; ensuring the availability of appropriately skilled labour; and making provision for that labour to work in locations that are appropriate to their needs and the needs of the wider community as well. In addition, the location and accessibility of health services and housing for both the active and frail aged must be considered. As the population ages, the location of schools and their potential for use as other community services becomes an issue. There must be adequate provision and location of passive and active recreation areas. All this needs to be achieved within the framework of more liveable and sustainable communities.

A key challenge will be to keep a finger on the population pulse by closely monitoring and maintaining a global focus on immigration and population change to ensure these issues are at the forefront of public and policy focus. Emphases in decision making will need to change to reflect the ageing population. While the impacts of this change are minimal in the short term (five years), the long term implications of an ageing population, change in households and family structures cannot be ignored as they become more acute.