This report examines historical trends in payment expenditure and recipient demographics, and the drivers of these trends, which will have implications for the medium‑term outlook for JobSeeker expenditure.

While the relationship between unemployment benefits and the unemployment level has been quite close historically, the JobSeeker recipient population has changed considerably over the last three decades, with the typical recipient now an older person rather than a younger man.  Trends such as an increasing share of female recipients, older recipients and longer‑term recipients are partly driven by changes in eligibility requirements for other income support payments.

The trends analysed in the report, including the recent impact on the Jobseeker recipient population as a result of COVID-19, are likely to result in higher expenditure projections for the payment in the PBO’s forthcoming 2020-21 Budget medium term fiscal projections report.