This report builds on the understanding of Australia’s workforce and skills recovery from COVID-19. The report analyses the impact of the pandemic on Australia's labour market, through scenario modelling, and profiles a resilient occupations framework.

While it is clear COVID-19 has changed how Australians do business and work, the latest ABS data show signs that the labour market is recovering. This is supported by the NSC’s own monitoring of internet vacancies and their own employer surveys.

The NSC partnered with the Centre of Policy Studies (Victoria University) and AlphaBeta Advisors to model four economic scenarios using a computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy, as well as a 'no COVID-19 base' scenario benchmark.

The central scenario, Economic Restoration, suggests that with social distancing measures wound back and borders re-opening, domestic and international activity resumes, similar to pre COVID-19 levels and patterns. Under this scenario the impacts of COVID-19 are stark in the short-term, but many occupations will recover over time.

The other three scenarios are Fortress Australia, which assumes borders remain closed until 2022; Impeded Recovery, where business confidence is dampened; and Accelerated Digitisation, which sees widespread adoption of digital technologies and processes.

Publication Details


License type:
Access Rights Type: