The Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) and a team of Australian National University (ANU) undergraduate students have researched whether fossil fuel companies are emitting the amount of scope 1 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions they said they would when seeking approval.

The researchers found that estimated emissions during the approval phase is not a good predictor of actual emissions. They also found that two in three fossil fuel projects were wrong about their estimates by more than 25%. In some scenarios, this includes projects that actually emitted less than anticipated.

One of the greatest problems with the inaccuracies of estimated emissions is the information is used for the Environment Impact Statements (EIS) that currently inform Australia’s national emissions targets.

It means Australia’s projected emissions are based on inaccurate information and therefore any emission reduction targets are based on a gross underestimation of the amount of carbon actually entering the atmosphere.

Accuracy is paramount both during the estimated emissions phase and also the actual emissions phase once the project is up and running. Only then can this country accurately set emission reduction targets based on credible information.