The modelling and analysis report examines the impact of the net zero transformation on Australia and provides insights into the economic opportunities from different pathways. This report was prepared to support the development of Australia’s net zero plan and sector plans. 

Three scenarios are modelled to compare different potential transition pathways for Australia.

1. Baseline scenario – Australia builds on existing climate and energy policies, to achieve emissions reduction targets and net zero by 2050 via an orderly and efficient transition pathway.
2. Renewable exports upside scenario – Australia follows the same domestic transition pathway as the Baseline Scenario but is additionally successful at leveraging its comparative advantages in renewable energy.
3. Disorderly transition scenario – Australia delays further climate action, resulting in increased costs over time from a transition path that is more uncertain and disorderly.

Key conclusions

1. Australia can be a primary beneficiary of the global net zero transformation if it continues to take decisive action on climate change.
2. Cheaper, cleaner energy will strengthen Australia’s international competitiveness.
3. Clear and credible climate action will lead to more jobs, higher wages and better living standards for Australians.
4. The net zero plan gives businesses the clarity and certainty they need to invest in Australia with confidence.
5. A disorderly transition would mean fewer jobs, less business investment, lower wages, lower living standards and higher power prices in a smaller economy.

The report is accompanied by technical appendices.